Pavel Logačev
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Notes on data science, statistics, and modeling

Technical write-ups on Bayesian methods, time series analysis, changepoint detection, pricing, and LLM applications.

A Hidden-Markov Model of Stockout Detection
Bayesian HMM for detecting unobserved inventory outages
bayesian
hmm
time-series
inventory
Jul 14, 2025

Price Distribution Elicitation from an LLM
Using GPT-4o to estimate plausible price ranges for products
llm
pricing
elicitation
Jul 10, 2025

Bayesian Changepoint Detection on Price Histograms
Detecting structural changes in pricing regimes
bayesian
changepoint-detection
pricing
Jun 30, 2025

Local-level state-space model with sparse state innovations for elasticity analysis
Bayesian decomposition of sales dynamics with NumPyro
bayesian
state-space
time-series
elasticity
Jun 30, 2025
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